The barrel itself, no single-name earnings risk. Above the 10 (67.90) and 20 (66.69) with both rising. Failed retest of the 68.48/68.78 shelf — scale in only on a reclaim of 68.78. Switch to puts below 66.835.
XLE — 10/27 give-back into the shelf; the switch is 66.835
Daily. Failed retest of 68.48/68.78, but trend and 10-EMA intact.
Master switch. Failed 69.86 and closed 68.21 at 10% of range after 19 closes over the 10-EMA. Puts under a 68.05 close; 67.76 is the line that puts the whole short book at full size.
XLE — failed 69.86, first close under the 10-EMA is the crack
19 straight closes over the 10-EMA, then 10/27 closes 68.21 at 10% of range. Trigger 68.05 close; 67.76 is the thrust bar low = master switch.
HALF long (cut from FULL). Still 1st on 21d (+6.57) and 63d (+14.71), 15/15 above a rising EMA50 at 64.48 — but 11th on the day (-2.09% rel) and 5th on the 5d, closing on the EMA8 at 68.18. Leadership cracking, size cut.
XLE — leader on its 8-day, first crack
68.21 close on EMA8 68.18; worst relative day of the period (-2.09 vs EW). EMA50 64.48 still rising.
Primary fade. New high 69.86 Monday on lighter volume, then a bearish outside day closing 68.21 under the 68.62 trigger. 20d RS rolling 9.61 -> 9.00 -> 7.56. Puts half size, add under 67.76, stop over 69.86, targets 66.69 / 66.20 / 64.48.
XLE — the last crowded long finally stalls
Failed 69.86 high, bearish outside day, close under the 68.62 trigger. 20d RS rolling 9.61 → 9.00 → 7.56.
Sector proxy and the regime judge. Key reversal at the six-month high (took 69.70, closed 68.21, under the 10-26 low 68.62) — but on 0.99x, so no distribution. Stack still rising, only +0.45% over the 10-EMA. 67.90 is the line: below it a quarter, below 66.69 flat. Needs 69.64 back before any adds.
XLE — key reversal at the six-month high, EMA stack intact
10-27 took 69.70 and closed 68.21, under the 10-26 low 68.62 — first warning, on only 0.99x