Always watched β no daily pre-filter for this strategy.
Broad confirmation. 769.66 is already above both its 20-EMA 768.61 and 50-EMA 766.14 β the equity tape has stopped bleeding, which is why I am harvesting this fade rather than pressing it.
Long side only. 769.66 with rsi2 76.9 is the dead zone and it is actively filling the 767.7-773.1 gap β no trade. rsi2>=90 puts are n=20, -0.06% d1, 35% win: no edge, so no ticket. Armed for rsi2<=10 back at 758.68-761.63 (n=9, +0.96% d1, 100% win, +1.69% d5), half-size calls to 766.14/768.61/773.09.
SPY β 3-day bounce into gap fill; long only on the flush
Gap zone 767.7-773.1 now filled from below. rsi2>=90 puts are a no-edge ticket (n=20, -0.06% d1). Wait for rsi2<=10 at 758.7-761.6.
Second short. 769.66 sitting on 10/06 distribution AVWAP 770.15 with PDH 771.14. Fail 770.1-771.2 = puts to 767.6/766.3; only a volume reclaim over 771.20 flips me long toward 773-774.4.
SPY β 10/06 distribution AVWAP 770.15 is the line
The reference. Four higher lows (758.68 β 761.63 β 765.21) but Tuesday's close above the 8/21/50 EMA came on 28.6M = 0.72x, the lightest of the sequence. Trade zone 768.61 (21-EMA referee) up to the 772.29β774.44 shelf; through the shelf and air to 776.35, then 779.42. Break up needs 47.6M pace, break down of 768.61 gets half size at 39.6M.
SPY daily β coil resolved up on 0.72x; 772.3β774.4 is the shelf
Four higher lows 758.68 β 761.63 β 765.21; closed above 8/21/50 EMA on the lightest volume of the sequence. 21-EMA 768.61 is the referee.
Primary long leg. Undercut the 10/1 low by 11 cents on 10/23 and reversed; now back above 10e/20e/50e with the 50e rising. Calls on the 767.0β768.6 retest, not at 769.66 β volume is 0.72x and the 7th percentile of sixty sessions, and pooled light-volume chase stats are negative.
SPY β undercut the 10/1 low by 11 cents and reversed; back above 10e/20e/50e, 50e rising
Levels: 774.44 first target, 781.62 60-day high, 764.5 stop, 758.68 undercut low. Rally volume 0.72x, 7th percentile of 60 sessions.
The gate. It closed 769.66, back over its 768.61 20-EMA, killing the 10/23 panic β which is exactly why I'm flat. Three prior reclaims-after-a-20-day-low all left UVXY lower at +1d and +3d. 758.68 is the level that has to fail for me to size up, 754.05 for FULL, and 768.61 is my stand-down line.
SPY β the panic failed (rule 5 fired)
769.66 back above the 768.61 20-EMA, three sessions after the 758.68 low. Three prior reclaims: UVXY red at +1d and +3d, all three.
Coil: lower highs 774.44 -> 772.29 -> 771.14 over higher lows 758.68 -> 761.63 -> 765.21, sitting above all three EMAs. 770-771 is 338M/point of supply and rejected 771.14 Tuesday. Fade the wall, long only on a 1.2x-volume reclaim of 771.20, short below e50 766.14.
Prior-day high 771.14 / low 765.21.
SPY β Prior-Day High/Low
PDH 771.14 / PDL 765.21 (watching for a break-and-retest of either level)
3 confirmed key-level zone(s) near 769.67: [765.85-774.82], [758.68-765.49], [774.44-781.62].
SPY β Confirmed Key-Level Zones
3 cross-timeframe-confirmed zone(s) near 769.67