Always watched β no daily pre-filter for this strategy.
Panic source. 721.25 reclaimed the 10-EMA at 719.53 but the 20/50 cluster at 725.27/724.96 still caps it mid-earnings. Over 725 kills the vol bid; rejection re-arms a spike for me to fade later.
QQQ β the 725 EMA cluster is the whole story
721.25 (+1.3%) reclaimed the 10-EMA at 719.53 but is still capped by the 20-EMA 725.27 / 50-EMA 724.96 cluster. Over 725 and vol has no excuse; a rejection here is what re-arms a spike for me to fade later.
No puts, ever β rsi2>=90 there is +0.29% d1 at n=23. rsi2 82.8 after a +2.4% three-day rip is momentum, not an extreme, so I pass. Re-armed long only at the ema200: 701.16-709.30 with rsi2<=20, half-size 0.20Ξ calls, targets 724.96-725.53, 727.95, 730.45. Small sample (n=5) so half size, not conviction size.
QQQ β ema200 retest paid; re-arm lower, no puts
704.40 (Oct 23) was the ema200 tag that bounced +2.4%. rsi2 82.8 here is nothing to short: n=23 rsi2>=90 is +0.29% d1.
Primary. Cleared the 713.5-715.4 shelf but closed 721.25 straight into the 725.0-729.4 wall (gap top, EMA20/50, 10/06 AVWAP, 10/21 high, 10/15 high). Fade the rejection, chase only the 729.5 hold with volume.
QQQ β pressing the 725.0-729.4 breakdown ledge
The laggard and therefore the tell. Ten sessions under the 21-EMA at 725.53, with a five-layer lid 724.55 / 724.96 / 725.53 / 725.96 / 727.95 directly overhead. Through 727.95 there is nothing until 729.43 and then 740.53 β biggest squeeze on the board, biggest leg down if it rejects. Below 717.70 the path is 713.59 β 709.30 β 705.58.
QQQ daily β 10 sessions under the 21EMA; 724.55β727.95 is the test
Lid = Oct19 724.55 + 50EMA 724.96 + 21EMA 725.53 + Oct16 725.96 + Oct21 727.95. Nothing has closed above it since Oct 13.
The tell. Sixth hold of the 700β707 shelf and +2.39% in two days, but parked under the 20e 725.27 / 50e 724.96 / 10/21 high 727.95 cluster. Calls on a close over 727.95 or a 713β716 dip hold; no puts at 721.
QQQ β coil held a 6th time, now parked under the 20e/50e cluster
20e 725.27 / 50e 724.96 (0.31 apart) with the 10/21 high 727.95 on top. Close 721.25 on 0.85x. 50e slope -4.13 per 10 sessions.
The tell, the trigger, and the only asymmetry in the file. Ten straight closes under the 724.96 50-EMA, rv10 25.5% vs rv60 17.5% while SPY sits at 12.4%. 701.16 is my arm-a trigger; 704.40 is the 60-day-low close I need for an overnight hold. QQQ-level fear has been a coin flip with fat tails for UVXY (mean -0.96%, 3 of 10 positive) β that's tradeable. SPY-level fear has been a one-way bleed.
QQQ β 10th session under the 50-EMA
rv10 25.5% vs rv60 17.5%: vol expands here, not in SPY. 701.16 arms me, 704.40 lets me hold overnight.
Primary. Only name with expanding volume (v5/v20 = 1.05x). Reclaimed the 715.43 double top and closed 721.25 above the 203.5M 719 shelf; rising lows 701.16 -> 705.58 -> 713.59. Long dips 717.6-719.0 to the 724.0-725.53 e50/e21 wall, fade that wall, flip long above 725.53 on volume.
QQQ β reclaimed 715.43, now fighting e21/e50 725 cluster
daily Β· e9/e21/e50 Β· levels from volume-at-price (45d)
Prior-day high 722.87 / low 713.59.
QQQ β Prior-Day High/Low
PDH 722.87 / PDL 713.59 (watching for a break-and-retest of either level)
3 confirmed key-level zone(s) near 721.24: [720.96-726.68], [724.98-733.02], [701.90-707.75].
QQQ β Confirmed Key-Level Zones
3 cross-timeframe-confirmed zone(s) near 721.24