Always watched β no daily pre-filter for this strategy.
Primary. rsi2 93.6 under a falling ema9<ema21<ema50<ema200 stack, third light-volume session of a bounce into the 281-284 distribution shelf it broke from. rsi2>=90 is n=8, -0.52% d1 at 12% win; the one prior instance under a falling ema50 (10-05 at 283.38) gave -0.72% d1 and -2.00% d2. Half-size 0.25Ξ puts on a stall in 281.0-282.4, add 283.5-284.6, targets 278.07/276.76/273.35/271.29, hard stop daily close >285.00. Flush-long flip to quarter-size calls at 269.88-271.29 with rsi2<=10.
IWM β rsi2 93.6 into the broken 281β284 shelf
Three-day light-volume bounce stalls at the Oct distribution; ema50 282.96 / ema200 284.02 overhead. Fade the stall, not the momentum.
The tell, smallest size. Over EMA9/EMA20 but capped by EMA50 282.96 and EMA200 284.02, deadest volume of the three (0.75x). Only trades at the edges β 281.0 reclaim or 277.9 loss.
IWM β laggard, 282.96 EMA50 / 284.0 EMA200 cap
First close above its 21-EMA in 42 sessions (280.18 vs 278.07) but on 18.9M = 0.75x, and still -8% from its Aug 14 high of 305.18. Five higher lows off 269.88 make it the only honest bullish argument; the 50-EMA at 282.96 against 283.56 is the lid that decides whether it's real. Over 284.24 small caps have turned β under 278.07 it was noise.
IWM daily β first close above the 21EMA in 42 sessions, on 0.75x
Five higher lows off 269.88, but volume is the missing piece. Lid is the 50EMA at 282.96 against the 283.56 high.
Put thesis invalidated β 280.18 is a close over the 280.2 flag, first 20e reclaim since 8/27, five rising lows. Flat both ways at the close: 0.75x volume with the falling 50e 282.96 and 10/6 high 284.64 less than one ATR overhead. Shorts re-arm only back under 277.89.
IWM β short leg retired: first close over the 20e since 8/27, into 50e supply
Close 280.18 at 0.94 of range, five rising lows off 269.88. But 0.75x volume and the falling 50e 282.96 + 10/6 high 284.64 sit less than one ATR (3.57) overhead.
Trend intact β five higher lows, four higher highs, up/down volume 1.30 β but extended 1.5 ATR above the 20d regression and rallying on v5/v20 0.77. Do not chase 280-281 (thin, 25-27M/point). Bid 278.1-278.9 at e21 278.07; take profit into the 282.00 wall / e50 282.96.
Prior-day high 280.40 / low 276.89.
IWM β Prior-Day High/Low
PDH 280.40 / PDL 276.89 (watching for a break-and-retest of either level)
3 confirmed key-level zone(s) near 280.17: [279.88-284.24], [275.22-279.44], [273.35-276.61].
IWM β Confirmed Key-Level Zones
3 cross-timeframe-confirmed zone(s) near 280.17