I've been telling myself "the stack is still 10>20>50" while a lid got rejected in my face, and this week I stop. AGYS was my cleanest long on the board — 123.45 two cents off the 126.00 line — and it answered by flushing 126.00 to 113.30 and closing 115.81 at 37% of range on 1.9x volume. The whole post-earnings bar is gone. So I flip it: puts under 113.30, 111.63 then 108 as magnets, out on a reclaim of 121.95. Same honesty on the rest of last week's book. DOCN was my "best ratio of the lot" short and it ran me over — 93.22 to 106.39 in two sessions straight through the falling 10-EMA at 104.41 — so it's off the board, I'm not shorting a squeeze and I'm not chasing an 8.7% ATR at 106 either. PTCT bounced back to its 20-EMA so 58.80 never broke; MUR is fading off 45.03 on 0.61x volume in a cluster that's -9.2% on the month and the divergence is gone; STNE is still wedged mid-range between 7.06 and 8.68 with a 12.4% ATR and I'm not paying that premium for a bar that closed in the middle. All out.
Here's what I actually see. The semis leadership isn't cooling, it's broken internally — FN is 43% off its 60-day high (603 to 343), ACMR 44% off (92.55 to 51.97), BE 28% off. That C08 "+16.9% on the month" print is a museum piece, not a forecast. Meanwhile biotech is the hottest group on the tape at +8.2% and AXSM is dying inside it: eight sessions of lower highs from 169.96, a 141.15 print today, -23.6% in twenty days and 10<20<50. That's the cleanest short on my board — puts under 141.15, out above 145.44. And with rotation ratio at 0.64 the groups are still dragging each other around, so I don't want sector beta this period. I want idiosyncratic. I want earnings gaps. HWKN and HRI are the two real ones: HWKN put up record Q2 FY27 revenue of $314mm and EPS of $1.34 and went +13.6% on 2.77x volume to 153.85, a new 60-day high versus 138.27, and HRI went +22.8% with a raised guide and closed at 91% of range. Both half size — HRI's ATR is 6.83% and its gap is 131.49-138.90, so a close back under 138.90 and I'm wrong, and HWKN is out under 148.33.
The size goes into the base, not the tail. APLE is the best setup I've got: ten straight sessions of higher highs and higher lows, a close at 18.62 through the prior 60-day high of 18.45, EMAs fanned 10>20>50, and a 2.16% ATR which means the weekly calls cost pennies — that's where I want the most contracts. ANF poked 167.09 through the 166.40 shakeout high and held 165.38 with the 10-EMA at 158.25 riding underneath; calls over 167.09, out on a close under 160.79. ACHR broke the 3.96 double-top on 28.4mm shares with ARK taking a million-plus and higher lows off 3.68 — calls over 4.32, out under 3.80. ACMR is the two-sided one: three higher lows off the 48.25 capitulation, volume drying into a Nov 5 print, with the 10-EMA at 55.25 as the gap-fill magnet — calls over 52.66, puts under 50.05, half size on the 7.35% ATR, and I'll take whichever side breaks first rather than guess. Two more fades: CAKE beat earnings and still closed at 11% of its range under the 10-EMA at 111.23, so puts under 108.19 with 106.56 the first target; HIMS is tightening 27.22-28.46 under a falling 10-EMA with volume drying, puts under 27.22 and 26.33 the floor that matters. Guardrails unchanged: 4-6% over mid on gappy weeklies, first strike past the level and never the second, two fewer contracts than I want, walk if the spread is wider than 8% of mid, half size on anything over a 6% ATR — that's HRI and ACMR this period. Six longs, four shorts, no more than one trade per cluster.
Flipped from long to short. Rejected 126.00 and gave back the entire post-earnings bar, -6.2% on 1.9x volume closing at 37% of range. Puts under 113.30, out on a reclaim of 121.95.
AGYS — distribution bar off the 126.00 lid
Gave back the whole post-earnings bar, -6.2% on 1.9x volume, closed at 37% of range
Base break through the 3.96 double-top on 28.4mm shares with ARK buying 1mm+. Higher lows off 3.68, reclaimed the 10-EMA at 4.12. Calls over 4.32, out under 3.80.
ACHR — base break on ARK buying
Through the 3.96 double-top on 28.4mm shares, higher lows off 3.68
Record Q2 FY27 revenue $314mm +12% and EPS $1.34 +23%, all three segments. +13.6% to 153.85 on 2.77x volume — a new 60-day high vs. the prior 138.27. Calls over 158.21, out under the 148.33 gap low.
HWKN — earnings gap to a fresh 60-day high
Q2 FY27 record revenue $314mm +12% YoY, EPS $1.34 +23%; +13.6% on 2.77x volume
Semis laggard 44% off its high with three higher lows off the 48.25 capitulation and volume drying into a Nov 5 earnings print. 10-EMA at 55.25 is the gap-fill magnet. Two-sided: calls over 52.66, puts under 50.05. Half size, 7.35% ATR.
Best setup on the board. Ten sessions of higher highs/lows, closed 18.62 through the prior 60d high of 18.45, EMAs fanned 10>20>50, ATR only 2.16% so the weekly calls are the cheapest premium in the index. Largest size.
Q3 beat with adj EPS +76% and a raised guide, +22.8% on 2.84x volume closing at 91% of range. Gap zone 131.49-138.90 must hold; out under 138.90. Half size on the 6.83% ATR.
Dying inside the hottest cluster (+8.2% 1w). Eight sessions of lower highs from 169.96 to 141.15, -23.6% in 20d, 10<20<50. Puts under 141.15, out above 145.44.
Beat earnings and still closed at 11% of its range on 2.15x volume, under the 10-EMA at 111.23. Classic beat-and-fade. Puts under 108.19, 106.56 (50-EMA) first target, out above 112.25.
Poked 167.09 through the 166.40 shakeout high and held 165.38. Stack 10>20>50 with the 10-EMA at 158.25. Calls over 167.09, out on a close under 160.79.