Tuesday 10/27 flipped the book, and I am paying attention because it was not a broad green day β it was a handoff. GS +2.07%, MS +1.86%, C +1.36%, COF +0.54%, JPM +0.52%, BAC +0.32%, WFC +0.01%, KRE -0.21%, XLF -0.25%, SCHW -0.48%. The capital-markets names and the card lender led; the regional ETF and the anchor closed at 42% and 24% of range on 0.81x and 0.80x. GS gapped 2.07% and never gave it back β open 912.00, high 915.43, close 911.77, low 906.59 β its first close above the 20-day at 901.52 since this slide began, with lows stairing 870.82 to 881.32 to 906.59. MS did +1.86% on 1.00x and stopped 16 cents under its 20-day at 187.07 after lows of 179.29, 180.77, 185.67. COF closed above its 50-day for the first time, 203.44 against 203.10, with a rising 20-day at 201.15 and a rising 200-day at 199.94. That is what a turn looks like at the edges of a book. What is not turning is SCHW, closing at 7% of range, -6.92% in ten sessions, under a 20-day at 94.16 still dropping $2.44 a week; C under a 20-day at 125.25 and a 200-day at 130.91; BAC at 50.68 under a 20-day at 52.60 and a 200-day at 55.93, -6.08% in ten. Good earnings with a falling 20-day is still a knife. Those three stay off my sheet.
KRE is my position and it is the same story it has been for a week: 72.58, a penny under the 72.74-72.75 shelf from 9/16-9/18, closed at 42% of range on 0.81x, while the 20-day has now risen eight straight sessions (70.28, 70.49, 70.68, 70.87, 71.03) and the 50-day has flattened at 71.86 off its 71.74 low. At about $0.16 a session of convergence the 20-day crosses the 50-day inside a week β but I do not buy a crossover I have not seen print. Hold the pilot, second tranche on a 1.0x+ close over 72.80, full size over 74.05, out on a close under 71.03. Volume into that shelf has decayed 1.15x, 0.99x, 0.85x, 0.81x; supply is thinning but it has not been cleared, and I will not pay for this breakout before it prints. XLF is the anchor, full size, nothing to do: 55.88 above a rising 20-day at 55.42, a 50-day at 55.58 and a 200-day at 54.35, ninth session above the 20-day; add only on a 1.0x+ close over 56.67, trim to pilot under 55.42, out under 55.03. COF earns its second tranche β 203.44 cleared 203.20 and closed above the 50-day β but on 0.70x, so I take it small and the third tranche waits for a 1.0x close over 207.10; back to pilot on a close under 203.10, out under 198.30. And remember C's September card data: 30-day delinquencies 1.35% from 1.29%, 90-day 0.65% from 0.63%, net loss rate 2.18%. That is why the consumer lender gets sized last and smallest.
GS and MS are the two I am watching hardest and neither gets full size yet. GS: my rule was a 1.0x close over 900.44 and I got 0.80x, so I will not pretend the rule was met. A gap that holds all session is its own kind of volume and the lows are stepping up, so pilot only; add on a 1.0x close over 920 or through the 50-day at 939.56, out on a close under 881.32. MS is a trigger and not a position: 187.10 on 1.0x is the entry, 189.12 the add, 179.29 the invalidation. JPM keeps its slot with nothing earned: 335.79 under a 20-day at 335.92 still drifting lower and a 50-day at 339.91 falling, though the lows step 330.40 to 333.16 to 334.50 over a rising 200-day at 330.60; today's 337.51 high cleared my 337.25 trigger intraday and closed 1.5 points back through it, so no. Pilot only on a close over 337.25, add over 341.35, stand down under 330.40. WFC is coiled and honest about it: 82.66 sitting on a 20-day at 82.63 that has not moved five sessions, five days inside 82.22-83.42 after the 83.99 rejection, still under a 50-day at 83.69 β add on a 1.0x close over 83.86 that keeps 82.65, full over 84.72, out under 81.02. Healthy uptrend, orderly dip, sign of a floor: this book now has all three in XLF, KRE and COF, and the first inkling of one in GS and MS. I add to what proved it and wait on what only suggested it.
Anchor, full size. 55.88 above a rising 20-day at 55.42, 50-day at 55.58 and 200-day at 54.35; ninth session above the 20-day. Add only on a 1.0x close over 56.67, trim under 55.42, out under 55.03.
XLF β anchor, ninth session above a rising 20-day
Full size. Add on a 1.0x close over 56.67; trim to pilot under 55.42, out under 55.03
Held pilot. 72.58, a penny under the 72.74-72.75 shelf; 20-day rising 8 straight sessions to 71.03, 50-day flattened at 71.86, lows 67.79 to 69.17 to 70.15 to 71.76 to 72.52. Add on a 1.0x+ close over 72.80, full over 74.05, out under 71.03.
KRE β eight straight sessions of a rising 20-day, stalled under the 72.74 shelf
Pilot held. Add on a 1.0x close over 72.80, full over 74.05, out under the 20-day at 71.03
Pilot held, nothing earned yet. 82.66 on a dead-flat 20-day at 82.63, five sessions inside 82.22-83.42, still under the 50-day at 83.69. Add on a 1.0x close over 83.86 that keeps 82.65, full over 84.72, out under 81.02.
WFC β coiled on a dead-flat 20-day at 82.63, still under the 50
Five sessions inside 82.22-83.42 after the 83.99 rejection; add needs a 1.0x close over 83.86
Second tranche earned. 203.44 is the first close above the 50-day at 203.10, with a rising 20-day at 201.15, a rising 200-day at 199.94 and lows stepping 199.28 to 201.28 to 201.52. 0.70x volume keeps the size small; third tranche over 207.10, back to pilot under 203.10, out under 198.30.
Slot kept, no position. 335.79 under a falling 20-day at 335.92 and a falling 50-day at 339.91, but lows stair 330.40 to 333.16 to 334.50 over a rising 200-day at 330.60. Pilot only on a close over 337.25, add over 341.35, stand down under 330.40.
Pilot only. First close above the 20-day at 901.52 since the slide, a 2.07% gap to 911.77 at 59% of range, lows 870.82 to 881.32 to 906.59 β but 0.80x volume did not meet my 1.0x rule. Add on a 1.0x close over 920 or the 50-day at 939.56, out under 881.32.
Trigger only, no position. +1.86% on 1.00x to 186.91, 16 cents under the 20-day at 187.07, lows 179.29 to 180.77 to 185.67. Enter on a 1.0x close over 187.10, add over 189.12, invalidate under 179.29. Off the sheet entirely: SCHW, C and BAC, all under falling 20-days.