Small Ball

Tuesday was a broad bounce day — FUN +10%, ULCC +12.6%, CENX +5%, OII +3%, most of my board green — which tells me the panic phase of this leg is finished and I'm no longer buying flush bars. I'm buying stalls that have already turned up. That's a worse entry, so I take less size and I demand the trigger close before I pay. Three carryovers are dead and I'm not mourning them. GPRE broke the 13.76 shelf I'd called twice and closed 13.49 on 1.44M against a 1.30M average — a fresh low is not a stall, gone, no re-entry. CLMT gave back the entire 52.17 pop and closed 49.89, under my 50.00 flat-line: out, done, and I do not re-enter a name I already sold. STNE failed its 8.43 trigger and closed 8.155 on 9.8M versus an 8.29M average — second flush in three sessions with 7.06 still on the table. I'll look again if it builds a base, but right now it's a headline with a tail and I'm not paying for it. And yes, the rotation snapshot says energy/shipping (C05, -9.2% on the month) is where the washouts live — that's exactly the cluster that has been cutting my hands off, so I'm going to the semis and growth-tech collateral instead, not the laggard trap. Three longs are actually armed. ACMR is the one I want: 70.59 down to a 48.25 flush on 10/22, then four straight higher lows — 48.38, 50.05, 51.23 — with volume drying 1.42 → 0.93 → 0.73 → 0.90M and RSI pinned at 32. Semis got gutted 33% in a month and that is the panic I fade. Half size, ATR 8.2%: arm on a close over 52.72, dead under 48.25, T1 the EMA20 at 60.72, T2 the EMA50 at 68.62. RXT is the same shape smaller — six sessions pinned 2.62–2.74 on fading volume, then 10/27 closed 2.87 at the day's high on 3.75M versus a 2.54M prior session. Arm on a close over 2.90, dead under 2.62, T1 the EMA20 at 3.19. OII took a -17% knife on 10/22 (44.09 to a 34.93 low on 3.45M, five times average), higher low the next day, then 39.27 / 40.24 / 41.47 on drying volume with RSI back to 42.8: arm on a close over 42.00, dead under 40.20, T1 the EMA20 at 43.10. CDE and FUN already fired and I manage them, I do not add. CDE closed 14.21 over my 13.88 trigger with volume down to 26.8M from a 33.2M average — stop stays at 13.12, T1 the EMA10 at 14.72, T2 the EMA20 at 15.74. FUN closed 7.71 over the 7.26 trigger and is now 17% off the 6.60 stall low with the EMA10 at 8.02 looming — that is not an entry price, that's a management price: take half into 8.00–8.10, trail the rest on the EMA10, and I will not chase it here. PLUG is still a coil under a lid: seven sessions in a 1.34–1.45 range, volume 45M against a 49M average and miles off the 147M August climax, RSI 27. Arms only on a close over 1.44, dead under 1.34, T1 the EMA20 at 1.57 — half size, it's a sub-two-dollar stock. ABR is the quiet base: 2.53 capitulation on 10/19, then closes of 2.89/2.90/2.96/2.92/2.89/2.88 with 3.04 rejected twice. One caveat — Tuesday printed 32.8M shares on a 2.4% range against a 9.5M average and went nowhere, which smells like a block or an index event, not a signal. I need the 3.04 close to confirm it; dead under 2.78. The fade book is down to two and they are ONE position. ASO is still the cleaner one: 61.92 blow-off, lower highs three sessions running at 61.38 then 59.855, RSI rolled 80 to 67, closed 59.33 — but Tuesday's volume dried to 0.94M against a 1.45M average, which is buying interest leaking out, not sellers showing up. Weekly puts, T1 the EMA20 at 56.28, T2 the EMA50 at 52.69, dead on a close over 61.92. KSS is day four off the 25.10 spike: rejected at 25.09, closed 23.78 on 3.67M against a 4.56M average, RSI 69 — T1 the EMA10 at 22.82, T2 the EMA20 at 21.61, dead over 25.11. Half size on both, and if ASO and KSS both close green on expanding volume the same day, I stand down on the whole retail short complex — it's one factor, not two trades. What I passed on: BHVN took a 25% rocket on 10/22 (30.5M shares) and has now closed 14.69 / 13.88 / 14.45 / 15.29, the last one at the high — that's continuation, not a stall, so there is nothing to fade. SEZL only ever got to RSI 66, it never blew off, and I don't fade a 127 print sitting on its EMA20. SITM is the same washout-stall as ACMR at eight times the price, so it's redundant and I already own the idea in ACMR. ULCC closed +12.6% at the high on double volume — I don't chase a green bar that size, and I don't short a squeeze either. Rules unchanged: closes, not touches. The stall prints first, every time — no watching a flush and calling it a stall. Half size on anything over 8% ATR, half size on every fade until one pays me. T1 takes half off, the rest trails the EMA10. A long that closes under its stall low is dead that day; a fade that closes over its blow-off high is dead the same way. Small caps panic in both directions — I fade the panic, I don't join it.