Nothing has changed at the index level, and that is the whole point. KWEB closed Tuesday at 23.13 β a six-month-low close, three cents under the 10/22 low β on 0.58x. FXI 32.50 on 0.72x, still 2.9% above its June shelf at 31.19. BIDU 78.27, 1.4% off the floor. Breadth is now 0 of 7 above EMA20: TCOM, the last man standing, closed at 39.59 with its EMA20 at 39.58, and it has printed lower highs three sessions running (40.69 -> 40.24 -> 39.65). I read 28 headlines in seven trading days and not one of them was the PBOC, a stimulus package, or a platform fine. The catalyst here has never been a chart β it's a Sunday-night headline β and right now nobody is writing it. So the coil is two-sided and it resolves on volume, but I lean short: nothing in the complex has reclaimed anything, and the one name that had just gave it back. I don't pay for a six-month floor without paper behind it.
BIDU is my top short because it is the only real trend left on the sheet: b20 -0.54 / RΒ² 0.90, b60 -0.48 / RΒ² 0.87, the steepest acceleration in the group, coiled three sessions inside 77.06-78.97, with a class-action drumbeat running into the 11/13 lead-plaintiff deadline. Sell 78.60-79.00, stop on a close over 79.60; add hard on a close under 76.73 β that is the 10/22 low and the six-month floor, and there is air beneath it: 74.50, then 72.50. KWEB is the beta and my priority: sell the failing gap retest at 23.33-23.74 (the 10/22 gap runs 22.93-23.74 and price has stalled at 23.33-23.37 three sessions straight), stop on a close over 24.10, first target 22.90; a close under 22.90 on 1.2x and it's 22.00 then 21.30. FXI mirrors it β sell 32.60-32.95, stop 33.20, targets 32.16 then 31.59/31.19; a close under 32.16 on 1.2x starts the June-shelf test. TCOM I now short rather than guard: a 5.3% bounce off 37.58 into a rejected EMA20 with falling highs and lows β sell 39.85-40.30, stop a close over 40.75, targets 38.43 then 37.58. BABA I stand down on at 100: it has held 99.19-99.46 twice and closed 0.51 then 0.92 of range on shrinking volume, so the flush is spent. I only re-short into the unfilled 101.00-104.41 gap, stop 104.90, for 99.19 -> 95.00 -> 92.00.
The honest counterweight is written down and I will honor it without arguing. PDD is the only positive 20-day slope in the group (+0.12) and the only name green over 20 days (+1.16%), and JD printed the first real bid of the month β 1.02x, closed at 0.96 of range, and its October low 25.05 held above June's 24.55. If PDD clears 80.17 and JD clears 26.36 while KWEB closes over 23.74, that's the relief rally: I flip to weekly KWEB/FXI calls for 24.72 and 34.26 and stop shorting beta entirely. If PDD instead loses 77.45, the last bid in the basket is gone and I press every short. NIO, LI and XPEV stay off β NIO's 18.5% gross margin is the best fundamental print in the group, but the China-EU 350k hybrid cap starting December 1 is policy pointed the wrong way, and I trade the policy. Book stays small, size for a gap, and don't overstay the wave.
The policy/ SOE proxy, mirroring KWEB one step behind. Stalling under the 10/22 gap (32.18-32.94) 2.9% above the June shelf at 31.19. Sell 32.60-32.95, stop 33.20, targets 32.16 -> 31.59 -> 31.19. Close under 32.16 on 1.2x = shelf test begins.
FXI β 2.9% above the June shelf, stalling under the gap
Close 32.50, EMA20 33.41 (-2.7%), RSI 35, 0.72x. Unfilled 10/22 gap 32.18-32.94; rejection at 32.64. June low 31.19.
Top short β the only real trend left: b20 -0.54 R2 0.90, b60 -0.48 R2 0.87, RSI 31, 1.4% off the six-month floor. Coiled 77.06-78.97 for three sessions with a class action into the 11/13 lead-plaintiff deadline. Sell 78.60-79.00, stop close over 79.60; add on a close under 76.73 (floor, air below) to 74.50/72.50.
Breadth barometer and the long-side leader. Only positive 20-day slope (+0.12) and only name green over 20 days (+1.16%); higher lows 74.72 -> 77.23 -> 77.45. Long trigger 80.17 close -> weekly KWEB calls. Under 77.45 -> 74.72 and the last bid in the basket is gone.
PDD β the breadth barometer, only positive slope in the group
Close 78.40, EMA20 79.65 (-1.6%), RSI 44, b20 +0.12. Higher lows 74.72 -> 77.23 -> 77.45; +1.16% over 20d while the basket is -3 to -7%.
Reverse from confirmed short to conditional long. Reclaimed 25.18, closed 25.57 at 0.96 of range on 1.02x β the first real bid in the group β and the October low 25.05 held above June's 24.55 despite 10/21's 3.43x distribution. Long only on a close over 26.36 (EMA20); close under 25.05 re-arms the short to 24.55.
Priority short and the cleanest beta expression. Six-month-low close 23.13, 0 of 7 breadth, 0.58x volume. Three-session ceiling 23.33-23.37 inside the unfilled 22.93-23.74 gap β sell the retest, stop 24.10, targets 22.90 then 22.00. Floor break (close < 22.90 on 1.2x) opens 22.00/21.30.
Tripwire turned short. The last name above EMA20 has now lost it (39.59 vs 39.58) with lower highs 40.69->40.24->39.65 and lower lows 39.77->39.62->39.33 after a 5.3% bounce off 37.58. Sell 39.85-40.30, stop close over 40.75, targets 38.43 then 37.58. Close over 40.75 = basket is going, stand down.
Downgraded from preferred short vehicle: the -7.7% five-day flush is spent. Held 99.19-99.46 twice and closed 0.51 then 0.92 of range on 0.72x. No chasing at 100. Re-short only the unfilled 101.00-104.41 gap, stop 104.90, targets 99.19 -> 95.00 -> 92.00 (June low).