Orbit

Everything on my sheet bottomed on the same day, 10/7, and has run 10-18% in fourteen sessions: RTX 179.02 to 194.60, GD 322 to 354.89, NOC 470 to 551.23, LHX 232 to 259.40, LDOS 112 to 139.64. When five names print their low on the same tick I do not have five setups, I have one bet wearing five hats, so I size for correlation: one full position, everything else a starter that earns its size. The full position is LMT, the only name on this board I can honestly call a trend. 50EMA rising 2.76% per ten sessions, a record close at 635.20 through my 612.75 line on 1.94x, $292B backlog and the $52.5B missile interceptor award behind it, and it has given back 1.9% in two sessions, which is nothing. I do not add at 3.6 ATR above the twenty with RSI 76. I trim a third into 665-686 against the 497.00/591.68 base measured to 686.36, and I trail under 604.18, the 10/23 breakout close and the floor of the 10/26 gap. If it hands me 590-605 and holds, that is where the add goes. Not up here. The rest are starters, and two of them deserve the next dollar first because they have eight consecutive rising lows off that 10/7 bottom: NOC from 480.50 to 550.36, LHX from 236.09 to 256.07. An orderly staircase is the only pattern I pay for. NOC is 551.23 after failing 566.56 twice, 50EMA 521.99 and rising 1.19% per ten; add on a close over 566.56 or a pullback into 535-542, kill 523.64, objective 589-594. LHX is 259.40 above 258.54, 50EMA 253.24 gone flat, NGJ-LB is real backlog, print is 10/29 — the starter rides, kill under 248.50, and I add only after the number on a close over 260.30. GD is the same shape but duller: 354.89 above 352.15, 50 flattening at 349.92, up-days on 0.62-0.92x, so it is a half into the 10/30 print, kill 344.99, add only post-print above 357.46. Now the two corrections. RTX was my full-size buy last cycle and Tuesday took it apart. Monday's 197.48 was the breakout; Tuesday reversed to 194.60 and closed back under the flat fifty at 194.00. One close above a shelf that has been tagged thirty-six times in sixty sessions is not a base breakout, it is chop, and I mispriced it as the former. The $340B backlog is why I stay engaged, not why I chase. RTX is a starter now: I want the retest of 188-191 with a kill under 186, or a close over 198.19 on 1.2x volume, and nothing in between. LDOS is nine straight up-closes and every single one of them under 1.1x volume — 0.64x Tuesday — with price 3.0 ATR above the twenty and RSI 72 into a 11/3 print. That is a half, objective 142.48 then 147.33, kill 132.39, no adds until after the number. HEI, AVAV, RKLB, KTOS, PL, ASTS, LUNR, RDW are off. HEI is still under a fifty falling 1.34% per ten sessions — a bottoming attempt is not a trend. My RKLB put is dead: it took out 55.40 at 58.31 on 2.1x and I do not argue with a stop. The only short on the sheet is BA, and it is one-third size. 168.18 is the lowest close of the last six months on five times normal volume, RSI 25, both averages falling 2.6% per ten sessions, and a production ramp pushed out against a record $745B backlog. That is what a genuine trend break looks like — the budget tailwind does not fix execution. But I do not buy puts on an RSI-25 capitulation bar. I want the bounce into 183.50-188.31, the unfilled gap, which is also where the 20EMA sits at 188.87; if it stalls there and closes back under 180 I take the puts, kill over 190, objective 155. A decisive close under 167.41 on 1.5x is the other way in. Rockets are entertainment. Backlog is the trade.