Tuesday flipped half my regime switch, and the half that flipped is the important one. XBI closed 154.84, +2.90%, its first close over a 50e that has been sitting at 153.67 β the exact level I said would confirm the single-name breakouts. Problem: it came on 0.88x of a ~9.8M 20-day average. I asked for 1.2x and got price without volume, so I don't size up, I take a starter long and make the tape earn the rest. And be honest about what it is β a range reclaim, not a new-high breakout: 154.84 is under the 155.78 swing high and far under the 168-170 September supply. Starter XBI calls now, add on a close over 155.78 on 1.2x+ targeting 157.63 then 159.98; a close back under the 50e is the second failed reclaim and re-arms the short with 147.60, then 145.26/143.85. Between 153.67 and 155.78 XBI is a tell, not a trade.
Why I care at all: the leaders were telling me this for two weeks and the ETF finally caught up. GILD 159.08 is a fresh six-month high close with 40 of 40 closes over a rising 50e at 148.70 and 1.1% under the 160.51 base top. BIIB 252.73, 40 of 40 over a 50e at 226.57, 0.7% under 254.41. AMGN 10 of 10 above its 20e, 50e up 6.31 handles in five sessions, fourth poke at 450.98. REGN back over the 813.53 pivot at 816.10 on 1.09x after I cut it below that line Friday. Breadth like that with XBI converging instead of diverging is a buy-the-dip tape, not a sell-the-rip one β but the calendar is still the other half of the regime and I do not pay premium into a number. BIIB prints 10/28, LLY and GILD 10/29, REGN 10/30, VRTX 11/2, AMGN 11/3. So GILD is post-print only: close over 160.51 on 1.3x+, void back under the 8e at 156.34. BIIB same, close over 254.41 on 1.3x+, void under 244.00. REGN wants a close over 819.09 on 1.2x+, void under 796.61.
VRTX is a coil, not a position β 8e 518.08, 20e 514.61, 50e 512.68 stacked inside eight handles into an 11/2 print and it already grazed 509.33 Monday. I let the reaction pick a side: close over 537.81 and I buy the continuation, close under 509.33 and the breakout is dead and I walk. LLY is a hold and a trim, not an add: 1281.91, 1.1% over the 8e, record close 1306.69, trim into 1306-1321, stop under 1263.32, add only post-print over 1321.21 on 1.2x+. AMGN is the one exception and it gets half size β cleanest structure on the sheet, but 11/3 is four sessions out: starter only, one add on a close over 450.98 with 1.2x+, stop under the 8e at 439.20, hard void under 433.00, flat before the 11/2 close. Off the sheet: NBIX at 146.00 with zero of its last forty closes above a falling 50e at 146.88 and a -4.23% ESP into an 11/2 print β a bounce in a downtrend. ALNY 226.79 is under its 8e and 20e and under a 50e at 238.74 falling 2.78 over five β broken trend into a 10/29 number. MRNA's 18% air pocket and 11.7% ATR make puts the customer's trade. I trade charts that happen to be biotech, not coin flips.
Primary long. First close over the 50e (153.67) since September at 154.84, +2.90%, but only 0.88x volume β starter size, add over 155.78 on 1.2x+, void under the 50e.
XBI β first close over the 50e since September (on light volume)
154.84 close +2.90% / 0.88x rvol; 50e 153.67 still falling -0.40 over 5 sessions
Post-10/28 trigger only. 252.73 is 0.7% under the 254.41 high with 40/40 closes above a 50e at 226.57 and volume dried to 0.73x pre-print. Buy a close over 254.41 on 1.3x+ after the number, void under 244.00.
BIIB β 0.7% under the 254.41 high, prints 10/28
252.73 on 1.08x; 40/40 closes above a rising 50e at 226.57
Half-size starter only. Cleanest structure on the sheet: 10/10 closes above the 20e, 50e at 415.13 up 6.31 over five, fourth poke at the 450.98 base top. Add on a close over 450.98 with 1.2x+, stop under the 8e at 439.20, hard void 433.00, flat before the 11/3 print.
AMGN β cleanest structure, fourth poke at 450.98
447.95 on 0.64x; 10/10 closes above 20e, 50e +6.31 over five sessions into an 11/3 print
Hold and trim, not an add. 1281.91 sitting 1.1% over the 8e at 1267.45 after a 1306.69 record close; trim into 1306-1321, stop a close under 1263.32, add only post-print over 1321.21 on 1.2x+.
Back over the 813.53 pivot at 816.10 on 1.09x, 10/10 above the 20e, 50e at 775.74 rising 7.76 over five. Post-10/30 only: close over 819.09 on 1.2x+ to reclaim the breakout, void under 796.61.
Watch for the post-10/29 trigger, no premium into the print. 159.08 is a six-month high close, 40/40 closes above a rising 50e at 148.70, 1.1% under the 160.51 base top. Buy a close over 160.51 on 1.3x+, void back under the 8e at 156.34.
Coil into the 11/2 print β 8e 518.08 / 20e 514.61 / 50e 512.68 stacked inside eight handles, Monday's low 509.33 already tested. No position; buy a post-print close over 537.81 on 1.2x+, and a close under 509.33 kills the setup.