The dip got bought before I got to be clever about it. Three straight up sessions: CEG off 252.48 to 258.98, VST off 140.16 to 146.66, URA off 34.11 to 35.86, CCJ off 78.60 to 82.41, GEV off 815 all the way to 895.08. So the honest update is that my two shelves held — CEG's sixth test of 247.20-253.37 and VST's eighth test of 133.44-136.17 both bounced — and my sector tell fired a real trigger: URA closed 35.86 over the 35.58 10 EMA on 1.32x volume, the heaviest in weeks, closing in the top fifth of its range. That is light green as I defined it, and light green means I add to the two starters, not that I go to war. Because the 10/27 bars tell two different stories and I have to respect the difference. CEG poked 265.78, cleared its 263.43 10 EMA intraday, and closed 258.98 — the bottom third of the bar, still under both the 10 and a 268.09 20 EMA, on 0.73x volume. That is a rejection, not a reclaim, and the top of an eleven-week range is a terrible place to pay up. VST closed in the top 80% of its bar and is genuinely the better-looking chart, but it is now nose-first into the 145.85-148.50 supply wall I said I would not chase into. So: hold what I have, add nothing at these prices, and let the market come to me.
The playbook. CEG keeps my starter; I add on a daily CLOSE over 263.43 with URA green, full size only over 268.09, and my hard stop is a close under 246.50 — beneath the 247.20 shelf that has now absorbed six hits. If 246.50 closes below me, six holds and a failure is a broken chart and I flip to puts with 236.50 then 228.63 behind it. VST stays the second and smaller starter; I add only on a close over 148.50, which is the wall AND the 148.32 20 EMA cleared in one move, and I do not touch it between here and there. Stop on a close under 136.17, the 10/23 low; a close under 132.66 — the May low — and I am out and short with 126 the target. URA is the tell and still not the trade: 35.58 reclaimed is light green, 37.03 (the 20 EMA) is fully green and unlocks the adds, and a close under 33.36 makes me halve both starters and buy nothing at all. Its 20-day regression is still -0.37/day at r2 0.82, so the sector's trend line is still pointed down even as price pokes above the short average — I am early, sized like it, not wrong-sized like it. Earnings are the other half of this week: GEV reports 10/28 and CCJ 10/30, and I hold neither into a print. GEV goes on the board the moment it prints — calls if it holds above 892 and reclaims 918.16, puts under a close of 868.00 with 830 then 796.41 behind it. CCJ is the one I most want to own because spot uranium above $90 against a miner -33% off its peak is the disconnect of the year, but it is still under an 83.88 20 EMA with a -0.52/day regression at r2 0.63, so post-print I take only a small call probe on a close that holds over 83.88, and nothing at all under 76.92. NRG is last in line again: 95.27, under a 97.38 10 EMA, 20-day slope -0.27 at r2 0.09 — that is chop, not a shelf, and I do not confuse the two. Nothing long under 97.38; puts under a close of 90.80. OKLO at 27.33 and SMR at 5.70 both bounced on below-average volume and both are still under their 10 EMAs — Cathie Wood's $7.3 million does not make a base, and cheap is still not on sale. The story is years long. I am paid for being early, not for chasing the third day of a bounce into supply.
Reclaimed the 892.38 10 EMA at 895.08 on 1.28x, closing top 86% of the bar — the one shelf that resolved upward on volume. Reports 10/28, so nothing held into the print. Calls on a hold above 892 + reclaim of 918.16; puts under a close of 868.00.
GEV — reclaimed the 10 EMA on 1.28x into the 10/28 print
Daily. 895.08 over an 892.38 10 EMA, closing in the top 86% of the bar. Below a still-rolling 918.16 20 EMA.
Chop, not a shelf: 95.27 under a 97.38 10 EMA, 20-day slope -0.27 at r2 0.09. Nothing long below 97.38; flips to puts under a close of 90.80 targeting the broken 93.36 double bottom.
NRG — chop, not a shelf; still under a falling 10 EMA
Daily. 20-day slope -0.27 at r2 0.09 = no trend. 97.38 10 EMA caps it; 90.80 is the floor that flips me short.
Clearer chart of the two: eight-test floor at 133.44-136.17 held at 136.17 on 10/23, now 146.66 and 0.6% under its 10 EMA. But it is inside the 145.85-148.50 supply wall I refuse to chase. Add only on close >148.50 (wall + 20 EMA). Stop close <136.17; puts under 132.66.
VST — eight-test floor held at 136.17, now into the 145.85-148.50 wall
Daily. 0.80 close-in-range on 10/27, 0.6% under the 10 EMA. Wall cleared only on a close over 148.50.
Sector tell, not a trade. Closed 35.86 over the 35.58 10 EMA on 1.32x volume — my light-green trigger. 37.03 20 EMA is fully green and unlocks adds; close under 33.36 halves both starters. Regression still -0.37/day at r2 0.82.
The name I most want to own: spot uranium >$90 vs a miner -33% off its peak. Reclaimed the 81.53 10 EMA but still under an 83.88 20 EMA with a -0.52/day regression. Reports 10/30 — no position into the print, small call probe on a close holding over 83.88 afterwards.
Shelf at 247.20-253.37 held for a sixth time. Starter calls on; 10/27 rejected at the 263.43 10 EMA (closed bottom third of bar, 0.73x volume) so no add here. Add on close >263.43, full size >268.09, stop close <246.50.